On August 3, 2026, the global precious metals market witnessed a dramatic turn. As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East suddenly escalated over the weekend, safe-haven funds flooded into the market. International spot gold prices surged rapidly after the Asian morning session opened, breaking through the $2,560 per ounce mark and setting a new all-time high. Meanwhile, driven by both industrial demand expectations and safe-haven buying, silver showed strong catch-up momentum, becoming the focus of the precious metals sector that day.

Geopolitical Black Swan Ignites Risk Aversion

According to the latest market reports, the situation surrounding a major oil-producing country in the Middle East deteriorated sharply over the weekend, drawing widespread international attention. The sharp rise in geopolitical risk premiums caused global financial market risk appetite to plummet and stock market volatility to increase, making traditional safe-haven asset gold the preferred shelter for capital.

The ThaiDiv precious metals analysis team noted that this sharp rise in gold prices is not merely a technical breakout but is driven by deep-seated risk aversion. Amid international turmoil, central banks continue to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, and institutional investors are rebalancing their asset allocations, shifting more funds into safe-haven assets like gold, providing solid bottom support for gold prices.

Silver Takes the Baton: A Dual Engine of Industrial Demand and Safe Haven

While gold repeatedly hit new highs, silver's performance was equally impressive. During the Asian trading session on August 3, silver prices climbed steadily, showing strong catch-up momentum. As a commodity with both precious and industrial metal attributes, silver's upward logic is more complex and sustainable.

  • Safe-Haven Attribute Catalyst: As gold prices continue to rise, some investors are looking for relatively lower-valued precious metal alternatives, benefiting silver.
  • Industrial Demand Support: With the continued expansion of the global photovoltaic industry and new energy vehicle market in 2026, industrial demand expectations for silver remain strong. The existence of a supply deficit gives silver prices higher elasticity.
  • ETF Holdings Increase: Data shows that holdings in the world's largest silver ETFs have been increasing recently, indicating that institutional funds are accelerating their deployment in the silver market.

Thai Precious Metals Market Correlation Analysis: Thai Baht Exchange Rate Becomes a Key Variable

For Thai investors, the surge in international gold prices directly drove up domestic gold prices. However, fluctuations in the Thai Baht against the US dollar became a key variable affecting domestic gold prices.

On August 3, real-time quotes from the Gold Traders Association showed that domestic gold bar prices in Thailand rose sharply, following the international market. Notably, the Thai Baht depreciated to some extent recently due to a stronger US dollar, which amplified the increase in gold priced in Thai Baht.

A ThaiDiv special analyst reminded investors: "While monitoring international gold price trends, one must pay close attention to changes in the Thai Baht exchange rate. Exchange rate risk management is an aspect that Thai precious metals investors cannot ignore. If the Thai Baht rebounds in the future, the increase in domestic gold prices may be somewhat suppressed."

Precious Metals ETF Fund Flows and Market Outlook

From a capital flow perspective, global precious metals ETFs recorded significant net inflows over the past week. Among them, gold ETF inflows were mainly concentrated in North American and European markets, while silver ETFs in the Asian market showed stronger capital attraction.

Looking ahead, several international investment banks have raised their target prices for gold and silver. In its latest report, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast to $2,600 per ounce and expects silver to test the $50 per ounce mark, driven by industrial demand.

Technical Analysis and Investment Advice

From a technical analysis perspective, after breaking through $2,560, the next resistance levels for international gold prices are at $2,580 and the psychological $2,600 mark. In the short term, gold prices show signs of being overbought, and investors should be wary of profit-taking risks. However, uncertainty in the Middle East will provide strong support for gold prices, and any deep pullback may be viewed as a buying opportunity.

For silver, if it can effectively break through and hold above key resistance levels, an accelerated upward trend may follow. For Thai investors, precious metals-related ETFs traded on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), such as the Gold ETF (GOLD), are convenient tools to participate in this trend.

ThaiDiv advises investors to appropriately increase the allocation of precious metals assets in the current environment of high geopolitical risk, which can help reduce overall portfolio volatility. However, they should remain rational, avoid blindly chasing highs, and adopt strategies like phased position building or dollar-cost averaging to cope with potential market fluctuations.

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