Bank-sector stocks are rallying, awaiting Q2/2026 results | Tisco Securities: the banking sector is set to post positive Q2/2026 numbers, with core profit clearly recovering and an attractive dividend yield of 7%, while funds continue to flow into large-cap blue chips
Asia Plus Securities: The Fed's signal of higher rates is drawing foreign money back into large caps; domestic positives are also in place, as the draft FY2027 budget bill passed its first reading
Key Points
Brokers expect Q2/2026 banks to deliver positive signals: although net profit may decline quarter on quarter, core operating profit should recover clearly.
The banking sector remains fundamentally sound. Net interest margin (NIM) is stable, fee income is gradually improving, and asset quality is good.
A key advantage of bank stocks is high dividends, with an expected dividend yield of about 7%, making them attractive value plays.
Foreign capital is returning to large-cap stocks; the drivers include the Fed's hawkish signal. Domestically, the FY2027 budget bill passed its first reading, providing strong support.
As Q2/2026 closes and Q3 begins, Thai listed companies are about to enter earnings season. Commercial banks typically report first and are seen as a barometer for the Thai stock market, reflecting both the financial sector and the overall economy.
Correspondingly, bank-sector stocks surged yesterday (July 2, 2026), with strong performance:
KBANK rose 6.88% to 233 baht;
SCBX rose 4.07% to 153.50 baht;
BBL rose 6.11% to 191 baht;
KTB rose 4.61% to 39.75 baht;
TTB rose 4.07% to 2.56 baht;
BAY rose 4.19% to 43.50 baht;
TISCO rose 1.69% to 120.50 baht;
CREDIT rose 1.36% to 22.30 baht;
LHFG rose 1.71% to 1.19 baht;
KKP rose 2.02% to 101 baht.
Tisco Securities chief analyst Tanawan Ruenbamrung told the Bangkok Business newspaper:
Bank net profit in Q2/2026 is estimated to fall about 9% quarter on quarter due to one-off items in Q1; but after stripping out those distortions, core operating profit will clearly rebound.
The sector's fundamentals remain solid. The market expects the Bank of Thailand not to cut policy rates further, so NIM should stay stable; fee income is recovering, with growth from capital markets and asset management. Most banks are controlling operating costs effectively.
Asset quality remains at a healthy level. Although energy prices are a headwind, non-performing loans (NPLs) have not worsened as feared. The broader economy, together with government support measures, continues to support repayment ability among businesses and households.
Bank stocks have a clear dividend advantage. Payout ratios are expected to stay near last year's level, with a dividend yield of around 7%, making current prices attractive for long-term investors.
Foreign capital is starting to flow back into ASEAN. Thailand is the only ASEAN country to have recorded net foreign buying this year. Supported by domestic political stability and a lower debt burden than many regional peers, overseas money is focusing on large-cap blue chips, with banks in particular favored.
Meanwhile, the market is rotating: from energy and electronics names that had already run up, into bank stocks that have lagged, have solid fundamentals, and offer high dividends as a cushion. They are expected to remain in focus in the second half of the year.
Top picks: KBANK and KTB. Both large caps have strong ability to attract foreign flows, Q2/2026 earnings are expected to improve, and dividend yields are above 6%.
Asia Plus Securities research deputy director Pasakorn Wongwijanchai said the sharp rise in bank stocks on July 2 reflected a return of funds to large-cap blue chips. Multiple domestic and overseas positives are prompting investors to add value stocks.
Top external driver: the market is taking the Fed's remarks positively, seeing the world entering a higher-rate cycle. Money is leaving growth stocks such as tech and electronics, which have weakened recently, and moving into value stocks; banks are among the biggest beneficiaries in a rising-rate environment.
Domestic positive: the draft FY2027 budget bill, worth THB 3.788 trillion, passed its first reading, boosting confidence in the Thai economy and the government's fiscal spending in the second half.
On the other hand, bank earnings are likely to bottom in Q2/2026 and gradually recover in the second half; as the rate cycle turns up, NIM may return to an upward trend.
The investment strategy is to focus on large banks, which have strong balance sheets and are direct beneficiaries of higher rates. Key picks: KTB, KBANK, and BBL.
ข้อควรระวังด้านลิขสิทธิ์: บทความนี้เป็นข้อมูลต้นฉบับของ ThaiDivi กรุณาติดต่อเราสำหรับการขออนุญาตเผยแพร่ซ้ำ
