On July 28, 2026, the international precious metals market saw major moves. Spot gold hit $2,458 per ounce during Asian trading, the highest since May, and closed near $2,452, up 1.3%. Silver followed suit, breaking above $31 to reach $31.25, gaining 1.8%. The rally was driven by escalating global trade tensions, a weakening US dollar index, and continued central bank gold purchases.

Macro Factors: Trade War and Weak USD Lifting Gold

Recently, US-EU steel and aluminum tariff talks stalled, while US anti-dumping investigations on solar products from Southeast Asia intensified, raising fears of a broader trade war. Safe-haven capital poured into gold ETFs; the world's largest, SPDR Gold Trust, added 4.8 tons on July 27, pushing total holdings above 1,000 tons. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell below 100 on July 28 to 99.85, its lowest since July 2023. A weaker dollar made gold more attractive for holders of other currencies, further boosting prices.

Risk Aversion and Central Bank Buying in Sync

Data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks purchased a net 156 tons of gold in Q2 2026, up 12% YoY. Major buyers included the People's Bank of China, National Bank of Poland, and Reserve Bank of India. Analysts noted that central banks continue to increase gold reserves not only for portfolio diversification but also to hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation. This structural demand provides a solid floor for gold prices.

Technical Signals: Gold Bulls Dominant

Technically, gold's breakout on July 28 was significant. It not only held above the $2,400 round number but also broke through the May high of $2,420 psychological resistance. The daily RSI rose to 68, approaching overbought but not yet excessive, suggesting bullish momentum remains. Near term, the next resistance is $2,500; a break could challenge the all-time high of $2,600. On the support side, $2,400 has turned into strong support; staying above it keeps the outlook positive.

Silver: Driven by Safe-Haven and Industrial Demand

Silver outperformed gold on July 28, showing its high volatility. It draws support from both safe-haven demand and industrial demand (solar photovoltaics, electronics). The Silver Institute forecasts 4% growth in global industrial silver demand in 2026, with solar silver use up 14% YoY. Moreover, silver inventories continue to fall; LBMA silver inventories dropped 3.2% month-over-month in June, the fourth consecutive decline. Tightening fundamentals provide strong upward impetus for silver.

Institutional Views: Near-Term Optimistic but Watch for Correction

Several international banks issued reports on July 28 raising gold and silver price forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold target from $2,500 to $2,700, citing possible stronger central bank buying and safe-haven demand. JPMorgan sees silver breaking $35 in the next 12 months. However, some analysts caution about correction risks. Gold has risen for five consecutive weeks; technical indicators show overbought pressure. If the dollar rebounds or trade tensions ease, profit-taking could emerge.

Impact on Thai Market

For Thai investors, rising gold and silver prices directly affect local gold jewelry quotes. On July 28, the Gold Traders Association of Thailand raised gold bar prices to 34,850 baht per baht-weight (about $983), a record high. Thailand is a major gold consumer; higher prices may curb domestic jewelry demand but encourage holders to sell. Precious metals stocks in the Thai stock market, such as Thai Mining Co. and gold retailer Hua Seng Heng, rose 2.3% and 1.8% respectively.

Outlook: Focus on FOMC Meeting and Nonfarm Payrolls

Looking ahead, market attention turns to the Fed's rate decision (July 30-31) and the US July jobs report. The Fed is expected to hold steady, but investors will scrutinize the policy statement for inflation and employment language. If the Fed hints at future rate cuts, it would further weaken the dollar and boost gold. Conversely, hawkish signals could trigger a short-term pullback. Nevertheless, with multiple positive factors stacking up, the medium- to long-term uptrend for gold and silver remains clear.

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